The Odds of Winning: Are You Playing the Wrong Game?

May 15th, 2025 Blog

The Great Indian Love for Risk (But in the Wrong Places!)

 

  • Would you play a game where your chances of winning big are less than 1%? Of course not! But wait—over 23 crore Indians have a Dream11 account, hoping to hit the jackpot. 
  • Would you take a gamble where the odds of success are just 0.5%? Seems crazy, right? Yet, one in four people have tried their luck in a casino. ðŸŽ°
  • Would you invest your hard-earned money in something where 90%+ of people lose? Probably not! But still, as per SEBI data (2024-25), over 1 crore Indian investors have booked losses in Futures & Options (F&O) trading. 💞

 

Despite these terrible odds, millions keep throwing their money at risky bets. Meanwhile, the stock market—a place where patience is rewarded and the probabilities of success increase over time—is ignored or feared by most.

The Stock Market: A Game Where You Can Actually Win ðŸŽ¯

If investing were a game, then Nifty 50 TRI (Total Return Index) would be the one where the odds are finally in your favor. Let’s look at what history tells us:

                        Historical Probability of Returns in Nifty 50 TRI (1999 - March 2025)


 

What This Means for You:

  • Short-term investing is risky- If you invest for just one year, there's a 23.28% chance you could end up in the red. Ouch! 😬

  • Patience pays off- Over a 10-15 year period, the probability of losing money is practically zero. 🎉

  • Want double-digit returns? Stay put! The chances of making over 12% annual returns grow significantly over time:

    • 1-year: 53.58% ðŸš€

    • 5-year: 65.61% ðŸ“ˆ

    • 10-year: 70.18% ðŸ’°

    • 15-year: 79.89% ðŸ†

Why Do Most Investors Still Lose Money? ðŸ€Š‍♂

Despite these solid numbers, less than 10% of Indian investors have truly built wealth through the stock market. Why? Because most people treat investing like a Tinder date instead of a long-term relationship. 😆

Common Investing Mistakes:

  1. Short-Term Thinking: If you panic every time the market dips, you're basically trying to time the market. Even Google Maps can’t help you time the market!

  2. Trying to Get Rich Overnight: Too many people expect stock market returns to behave like a cricket match—six or out! In reality, it’s more like Test cricket—patience and strategy win the game.

  3. Chasing the Next Big Thing: IPOs, hot stocks, and F&O trading might sound exciting, but they often lead to financial heartbreak. 💔

  4. Ignoring the Power of Compounding: Warren Buffett made 95% of his wealth after turning 60—and no, it wasn’t because of his diet of Coke and McDonald's! 🍔🥀

The Simple (and Boring) Way to Get Rich ðŸ“Š

  • Invest in fundamentally strong assets like stocks, mutual funds, bonds, gold, and real estate.

  • Stay invested for at least 10-15 years.

  • Ignore market noise and focus on your goals.

  • Let compounding do its magic.

If you're willing to risk money in games where the odds are stacked against you, why not play a game where the odds are actually in your favor? ðŸŽ²âž¡ðŸ“ˆ

Final Thought:

Gambling is about luck. Investing is about patience, discipline, and strategy. 

The choice is yours— Casino or Compounding? ðŸ˜